Numbers are not my thing; I rely heavily on my accountant. Sure, I run my own business (two actually - ask me if you want to know more) and do well at them, but I farm out most of the number crunching. I am an arts person and my strengths lie in understanding objects and cultural theory. Fortunately, "value" is not a numbers issue; it is an excitingly abstract concept. In my years of experience in the visual and decorative arts I have gained a solid understanding of how objects are valued. No object of course is an island; the larger market forces have a strong, if not always obvious, impact on the values of cultural goods. The view I am presenting here is somewhat divorced from larger economic forces and more about the microcosm of the Historic Period Blenko glass market in particular. Of course, I realize that any prognosticating risks leaving me with egg on my face so with that in mind the following newsletter focuses on the present and understanding how we got here.

It is worth beginning by characterizing the recent visual and decorative arts markets; we live in very strange times right now in terms of the value of cultural goods. Had someone told me in 1995 that any piece of Paul Evans furniture would sell for over $100K I would have laughed or gawked at you like an idiot. Welcome to 2008 where this is not at all unheard of and I understand why and approve. We have just been through one of the biggest periods of worldwide economic expansion ever. In recent times, the values of "things" such as art, whether "fine" or "decorative" (an increasingly irrelevant distinction BTW), have in many if not most cases grown exponentially. Though I generally frown upon it, art has even come to be seen by many as a new investment class - though a terribly illiquid and non-transparent one. At the very least this demonstrates that interestin cultural goods has grown dramatically and become much more serious.

A few years back, right at the height of the boom in the arts I recall having read an amusing little tidbit written by a Blenko glass collector and couldn't help but chuckle at the myopic and ill informed statement it constituted. She said in effect that from what she saw at auction that the value of Blenko glass was sadly declining along with most other collectibles.

Wow. 'How could she get it so wrong?' I thought to myself! Here's how; this person was simply not working with enough information and had made a few absurdly mistaken presumptions; that a dumpy online auction site defines the Blenko glass market, and that Blenko glass is a "collectible" akin to beanie babies. Very wrong on both counts. To begin with, one auction house does not a market make. Just as importantly, a rising tide may float all boats but to mix metaphors, the cream rises to the top while the rest sinks, and a lot of bad work made by the Blenko Glass Company sunk in value at that time. Her statement was so laughably off that it betrayed a fundamental misunderstanding of the market, and herein I will explain why. To judge by aggregate auction results, sure prices dropped at one point; but at any given time half of what is listed as Blenko in such auctions is not actually Blenko, of the remaining half, half are new, and no more than 10% of what remains are pieces of any importance. Fortunately people realized that most auciton offerings are poor quality and auction prices dropped. Meanwhile the generous figure of 10% shrinks by the day. So while this individual had her focus firmly set on the garage-sale end of the market, I daresay there is a fuller, and much more robust, picture.

Of course, auctions are usually responsible for both the (known) high and the low values for many class of goods, and there are structural reasons for that - ergo very good reasons to take auction results with a grain of salt. Auctions are but one segment, often the most visible, of any healthy market. (Note: visible is not equivalent to transparent; auctions of all types are often and easily manipulated) Fortunately, Historic Period Blenko glass has a very healthy and diversified market beyond auctions and it has grown measurably and substantially in the last 10 years.

To be sure, some of the early expansion of Blenko glass values was speculative and unsustainable (as I daresay we will shortly be seeing is the case with contemporary art). Bubbles happen and in fact, there was a Blenko bubble very early on, at online auctions. It's a curious aspect of the auction mentality that bidders often think 'wow, I can get a bargain' but are rarely concerened of the more common risk that they will overpay, particularly in the heat of bidding. As with most bubbles, the auction Blenko bubble began with reasonable cause; a critical mass of collectors, the publication of some (error riddled) Blenko Glass Company price guides, a major exhibition at a New York gallery - see photos above - and the opening of the Blenko Museum. It should be mentioned that circa 2000 there was also a general online auction bubble that propelled many goods' values as many people jumped online, drooling over an initial flood of goods once thought rare, now availble with the click of a button (when the dust settled it became clear that the supply of some items was significantly larger than thought while others, like Historic period Blenko Glass, slowed to a trickle with quality items appearing only once in a blue moon). Like most, the Blenko bubble grew from reasonable grounds but was carried to extremes on a very shallow basis; largely by one speculative collector/hoarder. This was also circa 2000, and I watched it happen day-by-day, helplessly - and to a small degree was swept up in it myself.

At the height of it I actually tried to intervene, fearing irreparable damage to a fragile young market. I contacted the person leading the charge and attempted a reasonable conversation about the market and their strategy. I won't tell you where I was told to go. Fair enough, that's life in the free market and as this person pointed out they can do whatever the hell they want with their money. It was very naive of me to try to intervene and stand in front of this auction freight-train that by definition was larger than one single person. One person may have been the spark and lead the charge, but once set off it is out of their control. This is one of the dangers of auctions. A few big players from this bubble are now sitting with storage lockers full of overvalued and (at best) second-rate, pieces of "Blenko" glass. The only protection from this phenomenon is restraint, research and experience - or avoiding auctions.

I remember in particular watching during this frenzy as the value of a very common design that I particularly dislike (the 6041 Vineyard vase) went from an average price of $25 to a high of $250. After about the 20th one, sellers started to just open their auctions at high prices and bidders dropped out... except one or two people who thought that they alone could sustain the market for this vase that probably exists in the thousands. Of the 40 (!!) or so examples listed at online auctions in this 6 month period, our friend from the previous paragraph purchased at least 12 of them at this time. Don't try this at home folks. This vase is now back to selling in the $20-$40 range at auction (and I don't know a decent dealer who will handle it), and appropriately so.

A few good designs suffered as well though - some shapes went for over $3,000 before settling back down to $1,200 after the three big bidders had their fill. However, at the same time the standard price of a floor decanter went from $300 to $1000 and those prices never retreated and in many cases continued to escalate consistently.

It is very true though that lesser pieces and common pieces have fallen noticeably in value overall (in most venues, online and off) whereas previously all of the Blenko Glass Company's work had been on a par. And I am thrilled of this development, it is eminently healthy. To put it mildly, not all Blenko glass is created equal (as you read in my earlier Newsletter). An essential element of understanding the work of the Blenko Glass Company involves understanding the wide variety of importance and quality of their product. Much of what Blenko made, perhaps 60% of its designs in any given year, was fairly commonplace or uninteresting (usually such pieces were made in large quantity thereby accounting for 80% of the company's output). It is the much smaller quantity of good and great designs by Historic Period designers, as well as the superb colors, on which Blenko made its reputation. For the most part, the collector market has thankfully figured this out now and prices reflect this.

We have also seen the market clearly distinguish between the three main periods of the Blenko Glass Company's production, as described by the Blenko Museum; the Early Years (1921-46), Historic Period (1947-75) and Post-Historic Period (1975-on). The Early Period market did see increased interest, and values climbed somewhat for special or iconic pieces, but then it quickly plateaued; it is a specialty segment for more advanced collectors. The Late Period has seen nothing but stagnant and dropping values, as it should - the product is neither as varied, important or as good as the rest (notice I don't handle it and I stand by my statement that post 1974 the Blenko Glass Company is essentially a different company, see related Newsletter). Meanwhile, quality Historic Period work has climbed in value and continues to do very well; I noticed an across-the-board increase in retail values just recently in fact.

Let me backtrack and give a little perspective on the early values of Blenko glass, which 10 years ago were then set almost exclusively by online auction. Prior to the aforementioned bubble I was once, to my knowledge, the record holder for highest price ever paid for a piece made by the Blenko Glass Company. As soon as I saw the piece, I knew I had to have it at any price. At this point, I would usually spend about $50 per item, with a ceiling of about $200 on great pieces. But this one piece made me throw that all away. I just decided to spend whatever it took to buy it. I bought it for $850, which was ridiculous at the time. A few people told me I was nuts. I didn't care, I loved it. Still do. It's hands-down the favorite thing I own; the 5832 3-part epergne.

Contrary to what some people believe, the internet has not leveled out the market. Online and off there is still a hierarchy of dealers - and it will remain that way for very good reasons (see Newsletter #1 for more on this). Dealers like me usually acquire their inventory from a network of other dealers and suppliers, often called "pickers" as well as from the larger or specialty auction houses (as opposed to mom & pop or regional ones). By purchasing an item, the dealer is effectively "vetting" it, or putting their stamp of approval on it. This is very significant in that the dealer, presumably, has some expertise to offer that his source (who is offering a large range of goods) does not. And without a doubt many auctions lack expertise - in fact they often rely on developing special relationships with dealers to vet items for them prior to auction. Different dealer's stamp of approval means different things; some are genuine experts in terms of factual or historical knowledge, some have a better "eye" for great pieces (be that for aesthetic or other reasons), some simply are marketing a "look" without concern for knowledge. All those are valid and important reasons that, combined with the sourcing and replenishing of a large and varied high quality inventory, enable dealers to charge a premium.

Perhaps more importantly, and this I know well from my significant experience in the art world, dealers protect a market. It is in their best interests to perpetuate a market by attempting to prevent bubbles, to prevent prices from rising too quickly and most assuredly to do everything possible to prevent prices from sinking. Some dealers are more effective at this than others, and some markets are more easily controlled than others (contemporary art for instance). The more a dealer specializes, the more reliable their prices ought to be. They are invested in the market quite deeply, it is their bread & butter and they want it to be sustainable.

The most important development in the market is the most recent one and it is not about dollars or dealers, it's about buyers. In the past year we have reached a new critical mass of collectors who are more than merely acquisitive in nature. The new breed of Historic Period Blenko glass collectors are savvy, culturally informed people. Many of the new collectors I have met are not new to glass or the arts, rather Blenko glass is something they discovered through prior interests in these areas. This is significant in that the earliest waves of collectors were relatively unschooled (many exceptions to that generalization of course, particularly amongst collectors who have stuck around for the long haul).

In part this is a natural result of the fact that the average price point has risen dramatically from the early days, but it is also due to the increased exposure Historic Period Blenko glass has received. Equally important is the tone of the exposure; in this case not all publicity is good publicity. Academic, well informed, sophisticated exposure is a good thing but takes a while to develop, for instance the Blenko Archive's website, and to be immodest, my most recent articles including Modernism Magazine. Such efforts have largely displaced the well intentioned but amateurish efforts of early collectors that unfortunately usually cast Historic period Blenko glass in an unflattering, tacky, light. I also have seen evidence of the sophisticated new breed of Blenko glass connoisseurs at the lectures I have given on the topic. This audience is always well versed in related glass, art or design matters. These are the people who are now leading the forward charge at this new stage of the market.

This new crop of Blenko glass buyers are to a great extent both leery of online auctions with their attendant risks and problems, and are more accustomed to buying from a dealer. No small part of this is that for the time needed to follow online auctions consistently enough and long enough to find the good pieces it is often worth paying an experienced and educated dealer for this service. Should time not be an issue then the question of identifying not only authentic but high quality pieces certainly is; no good and thorough books are yet published on the subject, and of the material that is published many years are unrepresented and scholarly review to put the work in context is totally lacking.

Given the rising prices, the research required to make a deeply informed decision on Historic Period Blenko glass is far too onerous and risky for the vast majority of collectors to undertake successfully. Thus the time honored vetting system of expert dealers comes into play. Finally, the auction market has suffered anemia as pickers return to incorporating pre-onlione auction sales methods (i.e. selling directly to dealers). Much material is now sidestepping the auction format particularly as early collectors now selling their collections are working with dealers rather than going to auction. The specialized dealer segment of the market is growing as new collectors demand and are willing to pay properly for a strong selection of quality items.